第三章 贸易投资与发展潜力

摘要

“一带一路”倡议的提出与实施，为扩大与“一带一路”沿线经济体之间的经贸往来提供了前所未有的机遇。本章在对中国与“一带一路”沿线经济体之间的贸易和投资的基本特征和发展趋势进行回顾总结的基础上，采用全球贸易分析模型（GTAP），在不同的假设情境下，对中国与“一带一路”沿线经济体未来的贸易变动、经济增长和福利效应进行了模拟分析，结果显示，“一带一路”沿线经济体的基础设施建设以及互联互通水平的提升，会对中国与“一带一路”沿线经济体之间的贸易起到很好的推动作用，同时对各自的经济增长和福利水平提升具有明显的促进作用。最后总结出了中国与“一带一路”沿线经济体贸易和投资的重点合作领域，并提出了相应的政策建议。

Abstract

The proposed and implementation of China's One Road One Belt strategy has provides an unprecedented opportunity to improve the economic cooperation and trade between China and economies along the Road and Belt.Based on a review of the basic characteristics and development trends of bilateral trade and investment between China and the economies,this paper uses the Global Trade Analysis Project（GTAP）to simulate and analyze the bilateral trade changes,economic growth and welfare effects.The results show that implementation of One Road One Belt strategy will significantly promotes the trade between China and the economies,as well as economic growth and welfare.Basing on those analyses,we summarizes the key cooperation object and key cooperation fields of trade and investment between China and the economies,and puts forward the corresponding policy implications.