Moral Realism and the Security Strategy for Rising Chin

YAN Xuetong

Abstract: The core principle of Moral Realist Theory (MRT) of international relations is that the rise and fall of a great power are determined by its political leadership which is essentially the direction, capability and determination a government exhibits in reforming and adapting its policy to the challenges both domestically and internationally. According to MRT, when China is, in fact, the second largest power in terms of comprehensive national strength, its goals and strategies should be configured accordingly to achieve a successful rise, or its power will be weakened by their Quixotical conducts. MRT holds that the promises a country makes to the international community should match its comprehensive strength so as to increase its international credibility and reduce the fear and resistance of other states; that providing security protection to neighboring countries may win over their support for the rise; and that expansion should start from emerging rather than established fields so as to avoid resistance caused by conflicts of interest. In the information age, China should extend its security interests in cyber space with an outward-looking stance rather than an inward-looking one that conservatively confines itself to defensive purposes only. The growing threat to the cross-strait peace posed by Taiwanese independence, the durable Sino-American rivalry and strategic competition in the South China Sea, and the fait accompli of a nuclear militarized North Korea are all unsolved problems for China. However, the most dangerous threat to the rise of China does not come from external forces but rather from the ultra-leftist forces at home.

Keywords: morality; realism; political leadership; security strategy for rising powers

Inspired by a statement by Guanzi that, “when a country is large in territory and weak in politics, its territory will decrease like its politics; when a country is small in territory and strong in politics, its territory will grow bigger”. Moral realism explains, in a systemic manner, the logic between political leadership, international configuration and the international system. This theory focuses on “the shift of the world power center”i.e. the factors that rising states rely on to replace the current dominant countries of the world.

Moral Realist Theory is based on a perplexing historical phenomenon. Throughout history, disadvantaged countries have surpassed hegemonic countries in three stages:preparation, taking-off and surpassing. While some theories of international relations have attempted to offer explanations, they have failed to explicate the reason why one particular disadvantaged country may succeed, while others do not. According to economic determinism, stronger material power should enable hegemonic powers to widen the power gap between themselves and rising powers. Contrary to this logic, the material advantage of hegemonic powers decreases and may eventually be surpassed by rising powers.

Since the beginning of the 21stcentury, such perplexity has been demonstrated by the narrowing gap in comprehensive national strength between China and the United States. On the one hand, it is commonly accepted that China falls far behind the US in military power, scientific and technological development, economic foundation and political systems. On the other hand, it has also been acknowledged that the gap in comprehensive national strength is narrowing. At present, China's GDP ranks second in the world, already equivalent to 60% of that of the US. Experts predict that China will catch up with the US in ten years. Moreover, besides the US, China is now the only country spending over USD$100 billion on national defense. China also receives the largest number of international students, second only to the US. The Chinese language has become the second most spoken foreign language, next to English. The primary and secondary education of China is already having influences on that of the developed countries.

In The Rise and Fall of Great Powers, Paul Kennedy proposed the theory of imperial overstretch to explain hegemonic decline. Nevertheless, this theory fails to explain the success of rising states. Major countries, without excessive expansion, do not necessarily grow into global dominators. For instance, Japan did not expand excessively after WWII, stopped rising after the Cold War and failed to rank among the greatest powers in the world.

The theory of “latecomer advantage” also offers an explanation for the successful rise states that industrialized at a later time. By learning lessons and applying emerging technologies, the latecomers have been able to rapidly strengthen their national strength and surpass developed countries, a concept referred to as “leapfrog development”. Yet this theory fails to explain why, among all the countries with such latecomer advantages, only a few countries succeeded to surpass, while most of their counterparts did not. For instance, since the end of WWII, a large number of developing countries in Southeast Asia, Southern Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa did not rise or surpass dominant powers even with their latecomer advantage. Among the major powers, only the USSR, Japan, Germany and China once narrowed the gap in comprehensive national strength with the US. Latecomer advantage seemed to have been enlarged by globalization since the end of the Cold War. Yet only the gap between the US and China was narrowed, while others were widened.

A theory becomes either outdated or insufficient when it fails to explain an objective phenomenon in reality. Countries differ, both intrinsically and across different historical eras. If a theory can be applied to explain the reasons for successful rises across different eras, then it is more universal and deemed a “strong theory”. On the contrary, if a theory explains only a few particular phenomena, it is deemed a “weak theory”. Furthermore and perhaps more significantly, fluctuations in the independent variables should be logically linked to corresponding changes in the dependent variables. A theory that explains the rise and fall of great powers, for instance, should be able to explain both the fall of hegemonic countries and the success of the rising countries by using the same independent variable. Based on these fundamental principles of establishing a theory, MRT makes an effort to discover the commonalities in power transitions throughout history, and explain the rise and fall of hegemons with the same independent variable.