1 Definition of Strategic Interests of Rising Powers

The strategic interests of all states are to safeguard their territory, prevent separatism and guarantee the survival of their people. Nevertheless, the strategic interests of rising states go beyond these. It is, therefore, essential to clarify the definition of strategic interests of rising powers; otherwise, any discussion about protecting strategic interests of rising powers would be moot.

1.1 Defining the Strategic Interests of Rising Powers according to National Strength

MRT is a branch of realism, and thus inherits the basic assumptions of realism. For instance, MRT believes that interests are the driving forces behind national actions, power is a zero-sum game, and that power is the means for pursuing interests.

MTR defines national strategic interests as a function of comprehensive national strength. MRT divides states into four categories according to the level of national power in the international system: dominant states (hegemonic states), rising states, major regional states and small states. States with varied levels of national strength tend to have the same strategic interests, while also having different strategic interests of their own. For dominant states, the most significant strategic interest is to maintain their dominance over the international system. For rising states, it is to rise and obtain dominance in the international system. For small regional states, it is to maintain its regional dominance, while small states are primarily concerned with survival.

The word “security” refers to being free from fear, threat and uncertainty. This definition is the foundation for any meaningful discussion about the strategic security of rising states. We define rising states as those who are inferior in national strength to hegemons but narrow the gap in-between. If national interests are defined by the level of national strength, the greatest strategic interest for rising states is to rise successfully, and their strategic security is to reduce the fear of an aborted rise, to lessen external threats, to accelerate their rise and increase the certainty of success.

1.2 An Analysis of Rising Strategic Interests Combining Domestic and International Circumstances

In the perspective of analyzing strategic interests and strategic security, MRT differs from structural realism and offensive realism. The other two theories work on the system-level; they attribute the understanding of security interests to the nature of the international system — external factors of a country. At the unit-level, MRT follows the principles of classical realism. It combines factors on both domestic and international levels to determine the strategic interests and security of rising states. This was the concept proposed by President Hu Jintao: to “combine the domestic and international situations”. For instance, the food safety issue in China directly affects the strategic interests of its overseas market. In 2008, when dumplings exported to Japan were reported to be poisonous, Chinese products were removed from supermarkets in many countries. MRT opens the “black box” of a state and analyzes the security threat to a rising China brought by both domestic and international factors.

MRT not only combines analysis on the levels of the international system and domestic politics but also incorporates analysis of the individual level. Political leadership can be used as an independent variable to explain changes on three levels:decision-making, national strength and international norms. At the individual level, MRT explains changes in strategic preference as a result of changes in political leadership. At the state level, it explains changes in the international distribution of power as a result of the different reform capabilities between the political leaderships of rising and hegemonic states. At the system level, it puts leading countries into different categories, as different types of leading countries would lead to different international norms. The same rising state could have different growth rates of comprehensive national strength and different strategic preferences depending on political leadership. Its growth in national strength might be faster than other major countries, and the hegemonic countries might fail to prevent it from surpassing. The successes of some rising states have led to changes in international norms, while the success of others did not. What are the explanations for these phenomena? Taking political leadership as the independent variable, MRT offers explanations. MRT believes that a rising state's ability to adopt and pursue a successful security strategy depends largely on the decisions of its political leadership. When the political leadership of a rising state chooses a progressive political doctrine to reform with, then it has a great chance of success. If its governing doctrine is retrogressive, then its rise is at risk of premature termination.

In 2016 the Cultural Revolution has past for 50 years. The People's Daily published an editorial on May 17,2016,reiterating the Resolution on Certain Questions in the History of Our Party since the Founding of the People's Republic of China,a resolution approved by the 6thplenary session of 11thCPC National Congress. This resolution specifically stated that “the ‘Cultural Revolution' was a domestic riot that was wrongly initiated by the leadership, taken advantage of by anti-revolution groups, and brought tremendous disasters to the Party, the country and people of all ethnic groups”. This resolution is in accordance with the core concept of MRT: political leadership is critical to the success or failure of rising powers. Apart from China, there are two other cases that prove the core argument of MRT: the rise and collapse of the USSR during the Cold War and the rise of Japan from 1970's to 1980's and its stagnant growth after the Cold War.

MRT explains both successful and failed cases, which is the basic requirement of a scientific theory. Any theory of science, either natural sciences or social sciences,should be able to explain changes in opposite directions. If we believe that an increase in room temperature is caused by crowdedness, then the room temperature should decrease when there are fewer people in the room, given that all other conditions remain the same. That is to say, the number of people in the room is the primary factor determining room temperature. When the independent variable of a theory explains both positive and negative changes, then that theoretical innovation makes scientific sense.

1.3 Analyzing Security Strategy from the Perspective of Increasing the Certainty of a Successful Rise

A “grand strategy” ensuring a successful rise is the most significant security strategy for an emerging power. The question MRT needs to explain is: how does a rising state narrow and reverse the power gap with a hegemon when it is weaker in material strength? According to the principles of MRT, a security strategy that emphasizes morality and justice will facilitate the rise and prevent half-way failure. According to Chinese thought, “one who has the Way gets more support and one who loses the Way lacks support”. That is to say, the rising state would have greater certainty of success when it is supported by a majority, both domestically and internationally.

In particular, MRT only argues that “the rise of a major country will be easier if it acts on morality and justice, while harder if it does not”. It does not argue that “countries that do not act on morality and justice will certainly fail”. Apparently, there are cases of successful rises through immoral means. For instance, a “predator country” with no regard for morality, the Qin established an empire by the military annexation of other kingdoms. Other typical cases include the Roman and Mongolian Empires, which established their empires through violence and killing. Nevertheless, MRT believes that such violent experiences should never be examples for China's contemporary rise. Instead, China should draw lessons from those who employed both force and morality. That is to say, instead of repeating the immoral practice of Qin, the Roman Empire and Mongolian Empire, China should draw from experiences of moral rises in history, including King Wu of Zhou, King Huan of Qi or Emperor Taizong of the Tang Dynasty, and discover a new path in the nuclear era and information era to ensure a safe rise through the strategy of morality.

For the general public in China today, the prosperity and influence of Han and Tang dynasties are the standards of a real national rejuvenation. The peak of Tang dynasty was the Governance of Zhenguan (627-649). Regarding international status, there is a considerable gap between that of Zhenguan and now. While China far exceeds the Zhenguan era in science and technology, it lacks the status, influence and respect from the international community that it historically enjoyed. The Governance of Zhenguan was the fruit of the leadership group composed by the Emperor Taizong of Tang. He implemented a mechanism of collective leadership, although the political system back then was an imperial one. After the Emperor Taizong of Tang passed away, Wu Jing compiled Zhenguan Zheng Yao(Political Records of Zhenguan), collecting the Emperor's statements during the 23 years of his rule. It is recorded that the Emperor Taizong of Tang admitted his mistakes 44 times in the first 18 years of his reign, four of them in written form. The fact that the Governance of Zhenguan became the most glorious period in Chinese history, to a large extent, was because the leadership group established by the Emperor Taizong of Tang followed the political principle of being open to criticism and self-criticism. Emperor Taizong of Tang believed that Prime Minister Wei Zheng's criticism towards him was the fundamental reason for the historic achievements of the Zhenguan era. “He has been devoted and loyal to me since the beginning of Zhenguan. He is the only one who offers candid advice for the stability and livelihood, daring to criticize and correct me when I make mistakes. Even among all renowned courtiers in history, no one could have done better than him! ” the Emperor Taizong of Tang said after Wei Zheng's death: “using copper as a mirror, one can fit his attire; using history as a mirror, one can understand the rise and fall of dynasties; using men as a mirror, one can understand gains and losses. Now Wei Zheng is gone and I have lost a mirror! ” (Wei Zheng, Biography 21, Old Book of Tang)

A country can either prosper or be misled by a political leadership group. The USSR government led the Union to victory during WWII but caused it to fall apart near the end of the century. While it is the people that create history, they are subject to the critical influences of the political leadership group of a country in the process of history. The successful leadership of any country is formed by a top leader through their leadership group. Even in the imperial era, successful political leadership was achieved through a collective leadership. The methods and results of the interaction between the top leader and other members of the group demonstrate the effectiveness of this leadership and, for a rising state, determines the success of the states rise.