量价转换背景货币政策效应时变性研究^[1]

张小宇 刘永富 王浩宇^[2]

摘要：为适应经济发展“新常态”，货币当局需要有序渐进地推动货币政策调控工具平稳转型，而转型的核心是从传统的数量型调控工具转向价格型调控工具。在量价转换背景下，厘清二者对实际经济的效应具有重要的现实意义。本文运用非线性断点回归模型研究在不同区制内数量型货币政策和价格型货币政策对实际经济增长的影响，结果发现，在2001年第一季度到2016年第四季度的研究样本上存在三个变异时点并在不同区制内二者对实际经济的效应存在时变性，这也充分表明货币调控工具的转型并非一日之功，量价调控工具的综合应用将是未来较长一段时间调控的主旋律。

关键词：量价转换 数量型货币政策 价格型货币政策 时变性 实际产出

中图分类号：F820 文献标识码：A

A Study on the Time Varying of Effects of China's Monetary Policy in the Background of Monetary Instruments Conversion

Zhang Xiaoyu Liu Yongfu Wang Haoyu

Abstract：In order to adapt to the new normal in economic development，the monetary authorities must progressively promote the transformation of monetary policy control tools in an orderly manner，and the core of the transition is from the traditional quantitative control tools to price control tools. Under the background of quantity price transformation，it is of great practical significance to clarify the effect of them on the actual economy. In this paper，the nonlinear breakpoint regression model is used to study the effect of quantitative monetary policy and price-based monetary policy on real economic growth in different periods. The results show that there are three variations in the research samples from the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2016 and the effect of quantitative and price-based monetary policies on the real economy is time-varying，which also fully shows that the combined application of quantitative and price-based control tools will be the main theme of economic regulation in the future.

Keywords：Quantity Price Transformation　Quantitative Monetary Policy 　Price-based Monetary Policy　Time-varying　Real Output